Monday, March 30, 2009


By Tim Wood

Professor of History at Southwest Baptist University, Bolivar, Missouri


I am a student of history. Professionally.

I have written 15 books in six languages, and have studied it all my life. I think there is something monumentally large afoot, and I do not believe it is just a banking crisis, or a mortgage crisis, or a credit crisis.

Yes these exist, but they are merely single facets on a very large gemstone that is only now coming into sharper focus.

Something of historic proportions is happening. I can sense it because I know how it feels, smells, what it looks like, and how people react to it. Yes, a perfect storm may be brewing, but there is something happening within our country that has been evolving for about ten - fifteen years.

The pace has dramatically quickened in the past two.

We (IN POWER) demand and then codify into law the requirement that our banks make massive loans to people we know they can never pay back.


We learn that the Federal Reserve, which has little or no real oversight by anyone, has 'loaned' two trillion dollars (that is $2,000,000,000,000) over the past few months, but will not tell us to whom, or why, or disclose the terms.

That is our money. Yours and mine. (DOES NOT BELONG TO THE LENDERS TO GIVE OUT)

And that is three times the $700B we all argued about so strenuously just this past September.

Who has this money?
Why do they have it?
Why are the terms unavailable to us?
Who asked for it?
Who authorized it?

I thought this was a government of 'we the people', who loaned not submitted our powers to our elected leaders.

Apparently not.

We have spent two or more decades intentionally de-industrializing our economy. Why?

We have intentionally dumbed down our schools, ignored our history, and we no longer teach our founding documents, showing why we are exceptional and why we are worth preserving.

Students by and large cannot write, think critically, read, or articulate.

Parents are not revolting, teachers are not picketing, and school boards continue to back mediocrity. Why?

We have now established the precedent of protesting every close election (now violently in California over a proposition that is so 'controversial' that it wants marriage to remain between one man and one woman!).

Did you ever think such a thing possible just a decade ago?

We have corrupted our sacred political process by allowing unelected judges to write laws that radically change our way of life, and then allow mainstream Marxist groups like ACORN and others to turn our voting system into a banana republic.

To what purpose?

Now our mortgage industry is collapsing,
housing prices are in free fall,
major industries are failing,
our banking system is on the verge of collapse,
Social Security is nearly bankrupt,
as is Medicare and our entire government,
and our education system is worse than a joke.

(I teach college and know precisely what I am talking about.)

The list is staggering in its length, breadth, and depth.

It is potentially the year 1929 x ten (or more).

And we are at war with an enemy we cannot name for fear of offending people of the same religion, an enemy who cannot wait to slit the throats of your children if they have the opportunity to do so.

Now we have elected President a man no one knows anything about, who has never run so much as a Dairy Queen, let alone a town as big as Wasilla , Alaska .

All of his associations and alliances are with real radicals in their chosen fields of employment, and everything we learn about him, drip by drip, is unsettling, if not downright scary.

Surely you have heard him speak about his idea to create and fund a 'mandatory civilian defense force' stronger than our military for use inside our borders.


Oh, of course. The media would never play that for you over and over, and then demand he explain it.

Sarah Palin's pregnant daughter and $150,000 wardrobe is more important to the media.

Mr. Obama's winning platform can be boiled down to one word: "change". Why?

I have never been so afraid for my country and for my children as I am now!

This man campaigned on bringing people together, something he has never, ever done in his professional life.

In my assessment, Obama will divide us along philosophical lines, push us apart, and then try to realign the pieces into a new and different power structure.

Change is indeed coming. And when it comes, you will never see the same nation again.

And that is only the beginning.

I thought I would never be able to experience what the ordinary, moral German felt in the mid-1930s.

In those times, the savior was a former smooth-talking rabble-rouser from the streets, about whom the average German knew next to nothing.

What they did know was that he was associated with groups that shouted, shoved, and pushed around people with whom they disagreed.

He edged his way onto the political stage through great oratory and promises.

Economic times were tough, people were losing jobs, and he was a great speaker. And he smiled and waved a lot.

And people, even newspapers, were afraid to speak out for fear that his 'brown shirts' would bully them into submission. And then, he was duly elected to office as full-throttled economic crisis was at hand [the Great Depression].

Slowly but surely he seized the controls of government power, department-by-department,person-by-person, bureaucracy-by-bureaucracy.

The kids joined a Youth Movement in his name, where they were taught what to think.

How did he get the people on his side? He did it promising jobs to the jobless, money to the moneyless, and goodies for the military-industrial complex.

He did it by indoctrinating the children, advocating gun control, health care for all, better wages, better jobs, and promising to re-instill pride once again in their country, across Europe, and around the world.

He did it with a compliant media. Did you know that?

And he did this all in the name of justice and ..... change.

And the people surely got what they voted for. (Look it up if you think I am exaggerating.) Read your history books.

Many people objected in 1933 and were shouted down, called names, laughed at, and made fun of.

When Winston Churchill pointed out the obvious in the late 1930s while seated in the House of Lords in England (he was not yet Prime Minister), he was booed into his seat and called a crazy troublemaker.

He was right, though.

Don't forget that Germany was the most educated, cultured country in Europe . It was full of music, art, museums, hospitals, laboratories, and universities.

And in less than six years --- a shorter time span than just two terms of the U. S. presidency --- it was rounding up its own citizens, killing others, abrogating its laws, turning children against parents, and neighbors against neighbors.

All with the best of intentions, of course. The road to hell is paved with them.

As a practical thinker, one not overly prone to emotional decisions, I have a choice:

I can either believe what the objective pieces of evidence tell me (even if they make me cringe with disgust);

I can believe what history is shouting to me from across the chasm of seven decades;

or I can hope I am wrong by closing my eyes, having another latte, and ignoring what is transpiring around me.

Some people scoff at me, others laugh, or think I am foolish, naive, or both. Perhaps I am. But I have never been afraid to look people in the eye and tell them exactly what I believe, and why I believe it.

I pray I am wrong. I do not think I am.


Alan note: having watched and interacted daily with an almost duplicate series of events of what is happening in our nation here today - inside Iran in 1978 and 1979 - using Islamic Khomeini and Soviet Marxist tactics we see here, as their Obama power grab, I cannot fault Tim Wood's conclusions.

We are encountering a replay, on a different playing field, of the same Khomeini/Soviet type revolution and inviting the same result that the Ayatollah and the dozen or so Communist urban guerrilla warfare psychologists in the Tehran Soviet Embassy inflicted on a similarly credulous Iran population.

There they started with general strikes, power outages, gasoline and heating fuel to crash the economy , cause resentment and irritation against the monarchy and cripple government administration and control of events.

Here it needed a strong shove by the Obama Presidency, Liberal Democrat House Speaker Pelosi and power hungry democrat Senate leader Harry Reid to create and pass spending bills (impossible to enact in Iran at the time) to bankrupt and cripple the USA.

There they had audio tapes of Khomeini promises and exhortations made and distributed nationwide (the Internet was not yet available) with instructions to copy and pass them around.

Just like Obama, publicity turned Khomeini into a "messiah" being sent to complete the tasks the Prophet Mohammad had failed to complete and bring change to the world of Islam - the Khomeini flavor.

With a more superstitious populace at hand in Iran, though some might contest this comment relative to Obama adherents, their messiah supporters bought tens of thousands of plastic toy telescopes and stuck a transparency of Khomeini's face at the wide end.

Distributed throughout the countryside, specially remote villages, ignorant individuals, one after another , were told to point these at the moon at night and see how much Allah loved and favored Khomeini that he had put his face on the moon as proof they should follow this new leader Allah was providing them to change their lives.

With modern technology, Obama used the media to "put his face on the moon" with his personal movement logo creating a brand for him.

Western Media, specially the BBC and Voice of America (guided by Jimmy Carter and his administration) began maligning and criticizing the Monarchy softening up the populace to accept radical change - much as the Main Stream Media (and Internet sites) softened America with anti-Bush "hatred".

Persuasive presentation rather than truth was the main thrust in both arenas.

Another similarity between Obama and Khomeini is their nationality. Khomeini did not have a single drop of Persian/Iranian blood. He had a Kashmiri mother and a British father, who converted to Islam. And as we know there is no-one more fanatic than a convert. (Actually to Sunni Islam, not the Shia kind in Iran.)

After the departure of the late Shah from Iran, Khomeini, once in power, began taking steps Obama is emulating

As a cleric with no real education, Khomeini said he had the whole country budget on a piece of paper in his pocket. He had no idea that just the index of the annual budget was presented to the Iranian government in two small suitcases. Piece of paper?

Obama has education but no practical experience of running anything, so in the same sort of ignoramus category as Khomeini, resulting in the huge errors and profligate spending that will ruin, even destroy America.

Khomeini quickly created his Praetorian guard, calling it the Revolutionary Guards. They were there to protect his revolution at any cost of bloodshed.

The same role ACORN and the legislated Civil Defence Force will play once it is passed by Congress and funded with money we do not have.

Khomeini killed virtually very officer above the rank of Colonel in the Imperial Iranian Military - despite their having been promised amnesty and returned to barracks. Where so may were slaughtered.

Not a practical way in the USA so Obama is pressuring Secretary of Defence Gates to enact a new bill in a compliant Congress to have the military oath of allegience be switched from the Constitution to the Presidency. This would oblige them to follow orers from Obama even if these were contrary to the Constitution. Currently they can refuse to obey such orders.

He also pland to defund much of the USA Armed forces and replacr them with his Civil Defence Militia made up of ACORN operatives and youth brainwashed in this mandatory "Volunteer" Camps.

Like the Hitler youth his Brown Shirts would be brainwashed to follow whatever he told them to do, including spying on their friends and parents and forcefully protecting teh Obama movement.

As Tim Wood says, everything is there for all to see bt most of us in the USA have not had the historical background of Tim Wood nor the hands on experience of someone like me in monitoring and analyzing the other most recent major take over in Iran.

So though you have eyes to see you do not recognize what you view and refuse to believe it . Luckily the American Spirit is alive and well and will rise to the occasioin and do what may prove to be necessary to save our country.

Saturday, March 28, 2009


Okay, girls and boys, fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride. As regular readers are well aware, Yours Truly is not afraid to don protective clothing and venture forth into the nether regions of TinFoilVille, Obamerica.

Today, I ask you to set aside your skepticism, grab your shiny chapeau, and join me on yet another trek into another dimension, across the line to the Dark Side.

Nothing more is required of you than to sit right back and hear a tale; just mentally follow me as I wind up the Way Back Machine to a land far, far, away, once upon a time, back to the future. Be not afraid, my pretties, this won’t hurt a bit.

So, put on your high heel sneakers and your red dress, baby; slap that foil-wrapped wig-hat on your head and…okay, enough. You get the idea; hell, you’ve had it all along, I just felt like messing with you.

Did you know that Turbo Tax Timothy Geithner, tax cheat (TTTG, tc) is the son of Peter Geithner, former Ford Foundation head of the Indonesian region’s microfinance program, which formerly employed one S. Ann Sutoro, Program Director, and Mother of the Obamessiah?

Betcha didn’t. Well, didja know that when Son of Stanley was going to school in Los Angeles, he went with a Pakistani friend to visit his mother in Indonesia, who was working for TTTG, tc’s father at that time, then spent a couple weeks in Pakistan, before he abruptly transferred to Columbia in New York where TTTG, tc’s dad was headquartered? Now, you do. How’s that Jiffy Pop hat fitting now, huh?

According to this website, Daddy TTTG, tc is also the recipient of the Royal Thai Government Order of the White Elephant. The plain vanilla site offers no elucidation as to why a Harvard advisor is being featured, nor does it explain why a White Elephant award is a good thing, but hey, I found it on Google, as is.

If you leave off the letter scramble at the end of the address line, it takes you to Columbia U.’s website, but that’s all I know. I told you I’d show you around the madhouse, I never said I could explain what it meant. Sue me.

Peter F. Geithner is an advisor to the Asia Center at Harvard University and a consultant to the Asia Pacific Philanthropy Consortium, Rockefeller Foundation, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and other organizations. He serves on the boards of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, the China Center for Economic Research (Peking University), the Center for the Advanced Study of India (University of Pennsylvania), Clemente (Holdings) Asia, Inc., and the Institute of Current World Affairs.

Mr. Geithner was with The Ford Foundation for 28 years, where he held program management positions mainly concerned with Asia. He was Director of Asia Programs from 1990 to 1996. Prior to assuming that position, he served for two and a half years as the Foundation’s first representative in Beijing, China.

His earlier assignments with the Foundation included Program Officer in Charge, Developing Country Programs (New York), Representative for Southeast Asia (Bangkok), Deputy Head, Asia Pacific (New York), and Deputy Representative for India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka (New Delhi).

Prior to joining The Ford Foundation, Mr. Geithner served with the U.S. Agency for International Development in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Washington, D.C. He was also Assistant to the President of a private international company, and served for four years as a Naval Aviator.

Mr. Geithner is a graduate of Dartmouth College (BA) and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (MA). He is a member of Phi Beta Kappa, a recipient of the State Department Distinguished Service Award, and the Royal Thai Government Order of the White Elephant.

Anyway, that info is obviously dated. Though Pops Cheat is a pretty interesting guy, he’s now retired from giving away other people’s money to future president’s moms to give away, and is currently president of LAFF. No, I am not making this up. I read it in the New York Times, so I know it’s true:

LAFF, which stands for Life After the Ford Foundation, is an alumni association for former foundation employees. It is perhaps the first such organization in the philanthropic community and has inspired former employees of other charities to form their own groups.

The LAFF Society, which holds reunions and other get-togethers in various regions, has 375 to 400 members on its mailing list, said Peter Geithner, its president. “I don’t think we’ve reached our full potential by any means,” he said.

Papa G.’s obviously rather unconventional style gives him a lot in common with the ObaMama, considered to be a pioneer in the field of anthropological microfinance for underprivileged Asian women.

Though from far different backgrounds, both parents afforded their sons with globe-trotting, exotic childhoods, culminating in Peter’s cheater playing Robin to Stanley Ann’s OBatMan. Small world, huh?

According to The Atlantic, young Timmy’s experiences at Dear Old Dad’s knee in Asia, even in China during the Tiananmen Square uprising, greatly influenced his life choices:

First, his Asia background. Geithner’s father, Peter Geithner, was a development specialist who opened the Ford Foundation’s China office - the first foreign NGO here, under a special agreement that continues to this day.

That was just before Tiananmen Square, and the father was part of the Foundation’s difficult but, ultimately, undoubtedly correct decision to remain engaged.

Tim apparently also studied Chinese, was posted in Tokyo for Treasury, and focused on Asia studies as undergraduate and graduate student. This is all great background for Treasury’s international dealings in the coming years.

Yeps, it might be real great for our international money dealings given the amount of foreign investment in our current financial infrastructure; you know, the one the Boy Wonder and the Caped Crusader are so intent upon demolishing to the studs in order to rebuild with the blessing of their UniParty predecessors and evil PuppetMasters?

Oh, yeah, baby, I told you, TiFoilVille, sugar, start the scary Twilight Zone music, now!

We don’t even need the Vast Right Wing Conspiracies to enjoy the deliciously wicked implications of the tangled web that pulling the Geithner/Sutoro knot unravels.

Just knowing that former Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Paulson was just named a “distinguished visiting scholar” at the same Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) that his successor, TTTG, tc, graduated from in 1985, like his daddy before him, is enough to fire up the electrodes on my headgear.

There’s plenty of synapse snapping, corroborating info from so-called “legitimate” sources to keep the old juices flowing like a teenage Madonna’s in the high school football team’s locker room. And ObaBuddy George Clooney’s dad, Nick’s upcoming March 4, SAIS screening of his and ObaFluffing son, George’s “A Journey to Darfur” documentary is just a little bit of spicy seasoning for the witch’s brew.

A simple peek at Wikipedia’s TTTG,tc entry will tell you about his childhood, education, his DaDa’s relationship with Obama’s mama, his own cozy relationship with Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, as well as his position on the Council on Foreign Relations and membership in the Group of 30, all good places to start on the Yellow Brick Road of TinFoilia. While we’re in town, stop by Logistics Monster’s place and have a good look around, see if we’re in the right place.

TTTG, tc’s New York Fed bio and the profile on the Treasury Dept. website are a little sketchier, but they back up the basics. backs up the Paulson and Bernanke associations, and his involvement in the G-10, the Rand Corporation, the Economic Club of New York, and the Center for Global Development.

Huff’n'Puff sings the praises of his Daddy-O’s legacy of Microcredit. However, for some strange reason, the International Herald Tribune tries to make it seem that when the soon-to-be Spokesmodel-in-Chief and the hapless TaxMaster met in October and became “smitten with” and “fell in love with each other” they were both unaware of the prior relationship between their respective Parental Units, as unlikely as that may be, given that Geithner was rumored to be the odds on favorite for Treasury Secretary long before that due to his integral position on Obie’s Campaign Finance Committee.

More tinfoil for that red flag, anyone?

The story of Obama’s Mama and her role in assisting Indonesian women get small loans from banks for pots, looms scrap iron and such, which to be fair, often greatly improved these women’s lives and earning potential, is pretty well documented. If you get a chance, be sure to pick up her dissertation, Peasant Blacksmithing in Indonesia, I hear it’s a real page turner.

Even Wikipedia is useful in informing us of her various personas, manifested throughout her life via her multiple monikers. Stanley Ann Dunham’s life was markedly different in a lot of ways than that of S. Ann Sutoro.

It is through this entry that we learn that Stanley Ann Dunham Obama Dunham met her second husband, Lolo Sotoero, at the East West Center on the University of Hawaii Campus. Ann Dunham had met her son’s father, Barack Obama, Sr., on the same campus years earlier, that time in a Russian language class.

She seems to have had a thing for men who work for oil companies, too, since ObaOne worked for Shell and Lolo worked for Mobil. The two profiles of Obama, Sr. here and here give interesting background on both parents and their influence on their son, but from wildly different perspectives.

Bloomberg has a rather unflattering look into Obama’s Indonesian years, but ABC News‘ reportage of the moment on the campaign trail when Perpetual Candidate Obama revealed his foreign policy qualifications a being his life in and travels to Indonesia and Pakistan that gives us the piece that makes the puzzle whole.

I told you at the top that Timothy Geithner’s father, Peter was with the Ford Foundation and oversaw a program with which S. Ann Sutoro was intimately involved.

The links I provided show that the years involved were those between 1981 and 1983. From ABC News:

Apparently, according to the Obama campaign, In 1981 — the year Obama transferred from Occidental College to Columbia University — Obama visited his mother and sister Maya in Indonesia.

After that visit, Obama traveled to Pakistan with a friend from college whose family was from there. The Obama campaign says Obama was in Pakistan for about three weeks, staying with his friend’s family in Karachi and also visiting Hyderabad in Southern India. (emphasis mine)

I guess the future Savior of All That’s Good and Holy in the Free World must have juuuuuust missed his future Sidekick-to-be, huh? Imagine that. And, he probably was planning to transfer out of Occidental, anyway, don’t ya think? That little side trip to Pakistan was probably something like a Spring Break thing, right? Sure.

Okaaay-dokaaay, boys and girls, time to say the magic words, “Twizzle twazzle twuzzle, twome, time for this one to go home.”

Wow, wasn’t that fun? Maybe next time we get together we can go to the Nepotism Club on Rahm Emanuel Street.

Or, maybe we’ll stop by Skadden Arps, or one of the other tinfoil lawfirms or, visit one Omerica’s many fine University campuses.

Isn’t it great to know that TinFoilVille is not the only fun place in Obamerica? Just about any street you go down there has just oodles and scadoodles of fun things to see and do.

So, take your time, follow the links down the side streets and alleyways where ever they may lead. Don’t be scared, there’s no real danger, well, okay maybe a little, but not nearly as much as there is if you don’t go exploring and see for yourself.

Even if you do find yourself at a dead end, don’t panic, the way back is clearly marked. And, who knows, you might find a whole new puzzle to solve!

See you next time, same Bat-time, same Bat-channel. And remember, “through the years we’ll all be friends, wherever we may be…

M-I-C-…see ya real soon!

K-E-Y…why? Because we like you!



The documentary was produced by a Czech about the "Loss of Kosovo." There are very disturbing scenes from 1914, 1941, 1945 to 1948. You don't have to know how to read Serbian subtitles because the pictures themselves tell the story.

Other videos relating to the UCK are also available when you go to the link:

CITAT: Novi dokumentarac češke javne televizije „Oteto Kosovo“, sa čijim prikazivanjem ČT nekoliko meseci okleva, postao je internet hit kod Čeha. Nezavisna grupa autora na čelu sa režiserom Vaclavom Dvoržakom snimila je film sa željom da se 17. marta na godišnjicu nasilja nad Srbima na Kosovu čuje i srpska strana kosovske priče i ponudila ga češkoj televiziji nezavisna grupa autora na čelu sa režiserom Vaclavom Dvoržakom kao ideju i sirovi materijal. Pošto je Češka nacionalna televizija emitovanje nekoliko puta odložila, autori su ga sredinom maja stavili na internet, gde je na „Jutjubu“ zabeležio već 22.000 ulazaka, a pokrenuo je i burnu polemiku da li je Češka trebalo 21. maja da prizna nezavisnost Kosova. Dvoržak je, pored svojih snimaka ispovesti kosovskih Srba koji govore o nasilju čije su bili žrtve, iskoristio i arhiv RTS. Češka televizija finansirala je delimično snimanje tog jednočasovnog dokumentarca.


Wednesday, March 25, 2009


Geithner 'open' to China proposal to throw away Dollar

Geithner, at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the U.S. is "open" to a headline-grabbing proposal by the governor of the China's central bank, which was widely reported as being a call for a new global currency to replace the dollar, but which Geithner described as more modest and "evolutionary."

"I haven’t read the governor’s proposal. He’s a very thoughtful, very careful distinguished central banker. I generally find him sensible on every issue," Geithner said, saying that however his interpretation of the proposal was to increase the use of International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights -- shares in the body held by its members -- not creating a new currency in the literal sense.

"We’re actually quite open to that suggestion – you should see it as rather evolutionary rather building on the current architecture rather than moving us to global monetary union," he said.

"The only thing concrete I saw was expanding the use of the [special drawing rights]," Geithner said. "Anything he’s thinking about deserves some consideration."

Alan note: is he following Obama's policy directive to dismantle the Dollar (sorry, Soros' directive and long standing bet against the Dollar implemented by Obambi) or is Geithner as stupid as this sounds? More likely, based on his track record so far, it's Obama taking another occasion to support anti-American COMMUNISTS and ruin our country at the same time.

The continued use of the dollar as a reserve currency, he added, "depends..on how effective we are in the United getting our fiscal system back to the point where people judge it as sustainable over time."

Alan note: little chance of this the way Oba-Hussein has gone a bankrupting spending spree.

The President of the European Union has termed the Obama Administration's chosen economical path as "the roadway to hell"!

President Obama flatly rejected the notion of a new global currency at last night's press conference. (Sure!)

Alan note: But this denial is almost certainly Obama the shifty Car Salesman's misinformation. As was his response at that same press conference about charity and taxation donations an outright disinformation when he said that in President Reagan's time you could only deduct 29% but under Oba-Hussein, the deduction would be some 39%.

What he failed to disclose was that the maximum tax rate under Reagan was 29% - thus the maximum deduction for charitable contributions was also that same 29% BUT under Oba-Hussein the maximum tax rate will RISE to 39% so the deduction would also be that same 39%.

Sound like an untrustworthy Car Salesman to you, too? Must if you have some brain in your skull,

UPDATE: Evidently sensing a gaffe, moderator Roger Altman told Geithner that it would be "useful" to return to the question, and asked if he foresaw a change in the dollar's centrality.

"I do not," Geithner said, adding several forceful promises, including, "We will do what's necessary to say we're sustaining confidence in our financial markets."

OOOPS!!! All he can do is "say so", ---- not "do so"!

Good Grief America! What have you done to us? Perhaps the whole world.

Sunday, March 22, 2009


Saturday, March 21, 2009


This is getting really weird.

July 4, 2008 EXCLUSIVE: Atlas Tech Expert Declares Obama Birth Certificate Forgery

July 11, 2008 ATLAS EXCLUSIVE: FORENSIC EXPERT: "the [birth] certificate is still a horrible forgery"


When I broke the explosive exclusive last June that Obama's COLB (certificate of live birth) was a "horrible forgery," it took a couple of days, but the O-bots sent around this "birth announcement". That too apparently was a forgery.

Obama Birth Announcement Forged

By Jon Carlson (hat tip Larwyn)


Sunday, March 8, 2009


Russia's transfer of its S-300 air-defense systems to Iran would be the trigger point for Israel to take Iran to war, says a US think-tank.

As Iran's quest to obtain the sophisticated Russian-made anti-aircraft missile system S-300 continues to spark controversy, a new "Presidential Task Force" report on Iran by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy warns about the consequences of Iran acquiring the weapon.

The report says the potential transfer of the S-300 systems to Iran "gives rise to the grave risk that Israel could feel compelled to act before the cost of doing so is too high."

The bi-partisan authors of the document, titled, "Preventing a Cascade of Instability," propose that the US "should promptly provide Israel with the capabilities -- modern aircraft -- to continue to threaten high-value Iranian targets" once Russia starts the S-300 delivery.

The "Presidential Task Force" report maintains that the US arms offer to Israel could be used as leverage in pressuring Russia against the sale of S-300 systems to Iran.

The "rebalance of the strategic equation" would come as a result of an assessment of the S-300 system by US and Israeli weapons experts which has described the weapon as an element that can effectively rule out a successful attack against Iran.

"If Tehran obtained the S-300, it would be a game-changer in military thinking for tackling Iran," says long-time Pentagon advisor Dan Goure.

The surface-to-air system tracks targets using a mobile radar station, immune to jamming.

Aside from the modern aircraft the US has been advised to provide for Israel, Israeli military experts have been on the move to enhance their offensive capabilities.

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is reportedly developing a killer drone, known as Harop, which can be used against "anti-aircraft systems and mobile or concealed ballistic missile launchers".

Harop, which is deployed as a "fire and forget" weapon, is designed to travel over 1,000 kilometers to loiter over suspected locations to spot and attack targets as they are exposed right before activation.

William Schneider, one of the authors of the report and a former under secretary of state in the Reagan administration told a news conference on Wednesday that Iran has ready access to enough fissile material to produce up to 50 nuclear weapons should they decide to make such bombs.

"The ability to go from low enriched uranium to highly enriched uranium, especially if [the Iranians] expand the number of centrifuges, would be a relatively brief period of time, perhaps a year or so, before they'd be able to produce a nuclear weapon," Schneider said.

In order for Iran to build a nuclear weapon, it needs to reconfigure its existing centrifuge enrichment plant at Natanz to reprocess LEU into weapons-grade HEU, or build clandestine facilities without the knowledge of UN inspectors.

An UN nuclear watchdog official speaking on condition of anonymity responded later by saying that the nuclear watchdog's monitors and surveillance equipment at the Iranian facilities have not detected any reconfiguration activity on centrifuges, adding that there exists no evidence that Iran is building a clandestine facility to produce the highly enriched uranium needed for bomb fuel.

IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming for her part dismissed the possibility of any such move by Iran explaining that, "No nuclear material could have been removed from the facility without the agency's knowledge since the facility is subject to video surveillance and the nuclear material has been kept under seal.

"The report by the US think-tank adds that any attempt by the US to hinder the sale of the S-300 systems to Iran should be done while making clear that "the US objective is to delay an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities while the international community continues its efforts to convince Iran to abandon its program."

Iran's Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar visited Moscow last month in what was widely believed to be in pursuit of the finalization of a deal on the advanced Russian system.

While there was no official confirmation about the controversial defense systems following the Iranian minister's return, Evgenia Voiko, an analyst from the Center for Current Politics -- an analytical agency close to the Kremlin -- told Press TV that Russia would not let the Iranian general return to his country empty-handed.

"The deals would be beneficial for Russia. Iran is one of Russia's largest military and technical partners. It would be imprudent to lose such a promising customer," Voiko added.

Kommersant had earlier reported that while an $800 million contract for five S-300 systems had already been signed between Iran and Russia, Moscow has yet to make a decision on whether to deliver them.

One of the more popular misconceptions stems from Israel's successful attack on the Syrian/North Korean nuclear facility.

1) Syria did not have S-300/400 systems. What they had were Tor missiles, which are short-range SAMs. The S-300/400 systems are long-range SAMs that are several magnitudes more capable than the Tors.

2) Syria had not protected that site adequately. They wanted it to appear non-military, and that gambit failed.

3) Even then, the Israelis utilized the path of least resistance, flying partially through Turkish airspace.

Thus, while the incident is always used to make the S-300 seem like crap, the fact is the system was not even in Syria, and the system that was present was a short-range SAM system, and moreover the Israelis prudently used the most optimal route.

There IS a reason the Israelis would attack Iran the moment they knew for certain the S-300 was being delivered.

There is a reason the Israelis have been telling Russia not to sell the system.

There is a reason that system is one of the most sought after SAM systems around, even though it is not cheap.

Reason is, as part of a integrated air-defense system (IADS), it can really cause a lot of hell for legacy fighters (e.g. F-15s, F-16s, MiGs, Sus, F/A-18s, etc) .... you'd need a Raptor or a B-2 to effectively penetrate a S-300/400 centered IADS (the wavelength used in the radars make the use, and survivability, of the F-35 somewhat questionable), and the system has a very long range.

Anyway, just doing my part to add more fact and less fiction.

Looking at the first Gulf War, the Iraqi defense network, even when faced with the combined might of the free world, and dedicated Wild Weasel teams to hunt down SAMs (as well as F-117 taking out nodal communication points, all the way to Tomahawks doing their part ...including filaments to short out communication) still managed to shoot down a number of planes.

Now, imagine Iran (whose current IADS is a generation and a half better than what the Iraqis had 2 decades ago), and who have learned from that experience, now with a S-300 centered advanced IADS ....and facing off not against the quality and quantity of the entire free world, but against Israel by itself.

I'd still put my money on Israel (the Israelis are that good), but the fact remains the Israeli airforce would lose a huge component of its attacking force if it allowed the IADS to be up and running before the attack.

Anyway, again, people can say that the S-300 was in Syria back then, but there is a reason the Israelis are not happy concerning the proposed sale of the S-300 system to Iran.

(As an aside, the S-300 in China could target and engage Taiwanese aircraft flying within Taiwan).


"you'd need a Raptor or a B-2 to effectively penetrate a S-300/400 centered IADS"

Both of which are detectable by low band radar.

No, what you need are EA-6Bs providing SEAD. With that platform, legacy fighters, as well as the overhyped B-2 and F-22, will be able to penetrate and defeat the air defense network.

The limiting factor on the effectiveness of any strike wil be the number of Prowlers deployed.

"Anyway, just doing my part to add more fact and less fiction".

You omitted the most important part of the equation.