Today's June Employment Numbers
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The updated Official and Alternate Employment
data are displayed here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
John Williams' full analysis of the reports is available
only to paid SGS Newsletter subscribers, but we are
providing you with the bullet points and the introductory
paragraphs, for your interest.
- June Jobs Loss Was 513,000 Net of
Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias
Likely Topped 700,000 with Birth-Death Machinations
- Payroll Employment Growth Overstatement
Could Top 2.5 Million Per Year with Birth-Death Modeling
- Annual Payroll Decline Deepened to 4.2%
Equal to 1958 Trough and Near 1949 Trough
- SGS-Alternate Unemployment at 20.6%
"June Employment Reporting Showed Ongoing Economic Deterioration.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released ongoing indications of deteriorating U.S. employment/unemployment conditions in June, with a worse-than-expected 467,000 drop in June payrolls, but a narrower-than-expected rise in unemployment to 9.5%.
Net of the Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias (discussed below) and net of distortions built into the reporting by the Birth-Death Model (discussed below), the June jobs loss likely exceeded 700,000.
"The severe recession continues to deepen.
My broad outlook has not changed; the worst of the financial and economic crises remain ahead of us.
Best regards,
The ShadowStats Team
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