Thursday, January 8, 2009


ALAN NOTE: were these rockets an effort to help save HAMAS by distracting or infering a second front was ready to present itself or is Iran testing the waters for a serious three prong attack on Israel? Gaza/HAMAS, Lebanon/Hezbollah, and Syria/Russia/ Iran.

Or is this a reverse ploy by Israel as a precursor to sending a heavy duty air raid on Iran? Out of a refuelling and operational airport only FIVE minutes flying time away from Iran's nuclear sites.


Hezbollah Israel, Syria and Lebanon: A Tangled Web Israeli-Palestinian Geopolitics and the Peace Process Operation Cast Lead: Israeli Offensive in Gaza

Three Katyusha rockets launched from southern Lebanon exploded in northern Israel’s western Galilee early Jan. 8, Israeli media has reported.

While Israel has been conducting a large-scale military offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, its northern front has — until now — remained quiet.

The primary suspect behind the rocket attacks will naturally be the radical Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. It is unclear that Hezbollah would gain much from drawing Israel into a fight at this time, however.

As Stratfor earlier reported, a debate has been taking place inside Hezbollah over whether now was a wise time to open up a northern front in Israel.

A more hawkish faction has argued that another military confrontation with Israel was inevitable, and that the group would be better off engaging Israel now, while the Israel Defense Forces would be constrained by a two-front war given the conflict in Gaza.

It is possible that this faction of Hezbollah has won out and followed through with a plan of action against Israel, thereby seriously escalating the risk of another war in southern Lebanon.

But a Stratfor source in Hezbollah also noted recently that the Iranians, preferring to keep Hezbollah out of the fight, were concerned that other Sunni militants in Lebanon could decide to launch rockets against Israel and draw the group into war.

The key thing to watch for now is whether this rocket attack is the first salvo, or if this is an isolated attack. If the rocket attacks continue, it is far more likely to be Hezbollah than some Sunni militants acting independently.

At this time, it is difficult to say who actually launched the rockets. But Israel has been preparing for a possible conflict with Hezbollah, and the the threat of war on Israel’s northern frontier has just risen dramatically.

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